聚酯产业链品种供需分析及后市展望

聚酯产业链品种供需分析及后市展望研究员：隋斐期货从业证号：F3019741投资咨询证号：Z00170251GALAXY FUTURES单位：%聚酯开工率聚酯-开工提振 利润压缩聚酯加权利润单位：元/吨 节后聚酯开工向上提振，聚酯利润整体压缩。聚酯开工率较去年同期大致相当。 2月中旬中鸿25万吨/年的涤纶长丝以及宇越新材料25万吨/年的薄膜新装置投产，聚酯产能升至8734万吨。(200)(100)01002003004005006007008001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/1201920202021202220232024202555%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/12019202020212022202320242025聚酯年内新增投产聚酯产品产能（万吨）投产时间仪征化纤瓶片501月上旬新凤鸣中鸿长丝252月中旬宇越新材料长丝252月中旬三房巷瓶片75Q2桐昆佑顺长丝30H1富海富海60年中浙江三维瓶片602025桐昆佑顺长丝30H2逸普瓶片302025绍兴翔宇薄膜302025裕兴薄膜252025三房巷薄膜502025新凤鸣中鸿长丝40年底宇越新材料薄膜302025桐昆恒海长丝302025天圣瓶片202025610总产能pOqPmPtMmRsNpNrOpRtNrMbR9R9PpNnNoMmRlOrRmPkPrRqR8OnMpQvPrQoPvPnMmR2GALAXY FUTURES聚酯-江浙织机加弹开工略低于往年同期中国坯布库存天数单位：天 节后织造订单跟进有限，下游欲先消耗原料库存，终端织机加弹企业开工略低于往年同期。江浙印染开工率单位：%江浙加弹开工率单位：%江浙织机开工率单位：%0%20%40%60%80%100%1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/112/120192020202120222023202420250%20%40%60%80%100%1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/120192020202120222023202420250%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/1 10/1 11/1 12/12021202220232024202515.0020.0025.0030.0035.0040.0045.001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/1 10/1 11/1 12/120192020202120222023202420253GALAXY FUTURES单位：元/吨涤纶长丝利润聚酯-长丝检修企业陆续复产 库存回升涤纶长丝开工单位：% 长丝利润良好，2月上中旬以来有近300万吨长丝检修装置陆续重启，长丝开工高于历史同期，终端订单跟进有限，织造开工不及预期，长丝库存延续累库。涤纶长丝库存单位：天40%50%60%70%80%90%100%1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/1 10/1 11/1 12/120192020202120222023202420250.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.01/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/1 11/1 12/12019202020212022202320242025(400)(200)0200400600800100012001/12/1 3/14/15/16/17/18/19/1 10/1 11/1 12/120192020202120222023202420254GALAXY FUTURES单位：元/吨瓶片现货加工费聚酯-瓶片供应抽紧 加工费低位震荡瓶片开工率单位：% 随着2月中旬以来腾龙、万凯、仪征多套瓶片装置开始检修，瓶片开工降至低位，本周瓶片加工费重心小幅抬升，瓶片基差窄幅波动。由于下游节后需求恢复速度偏慢以及后续瓶片检修复产和新装置的投产预期，瓶片加工费上升的空间相对有限。瓶片基差单位：元/吨0.00500.001000.001500.002000.002500.001/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1201920202021202220232024202550%55%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%95%100%1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/1 10/1 11/1 12/12019202020212022202320242025-120-100-80-60-40-2002040602月基差3月基差5GALAXY FUTURES单位：%短纤开工率聚酯-短纤开工及库存上升 利润压缩短纤工厂库存天数单位：天 2月上中旬宁波大发、宿迁逸达、华宏化纤等短纤检修装置陆续重启，短纤开工率向上抬升，下游纱厂开工较去年同期大致持平，节后终端市场成交气氛偏淡，纱厂消耗原料库存为主，短纤工厂库存累积，短纤工厂利润压缩。短纤现货利润单位：元/吨(600)(400)(200)020040060080010001200140016001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/1 10/1 11/1 12/1201920202021202220232024202540%50%60%70%80%90%100%110%1/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/1 10/1 11/1 12/12019202020212022202320242025(10.0)(5.0)0.05.010.015.020.025.01/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/1...